Egyptians hoping ElBaradei can provide change they can believe in

Such is the desire for change among liberal thinkers in Egypt that any sliver of hope of overturning almost three decades of rule by President Hosni Mubarak is enthusiastically championed. It doesn't seem to matter that the next presidential election is over a year away or that potential reformist leaders are wildly celebrated despite not being legally allowed to run for office. It appears that a slim chance is better than none at all.

The reception afforded Mohammed ElBaradei on his homecoming to Cairo last week seemed to sum up the mood of many who have grown up under Mubarak's increasingly oppressive and divisive leadership. Rapturous crowds of thousands welcomed ElBaradei, many inspired by the calls from Egypt's normally moribund opposition figures for him to run against Mubarak in 2011, if the 81-year-old incumbent decides to stand again.

The reaction to ElBaradei's return also smacked of desperation. The Nobel Peace Prize laureate is officially banned under Egypt's constitution from running for president. Amendments to the constitution passed in 2005 and 2007 prohibit him from doing so, a fact well-known among the celebrating masses. And yet, he was still welcomed as a national hero and saviour.

While neither counting himself in nor ruling himself out, ElBaradei has certainly stirred up debate over the future of Egypt, a country that has a history of strongly suppressing dissent and criticism of the president and his methods.

Support from cross-section of Egyptian society

Public support has led to ElBaradei being championed

Echoing another leader who was swept to power on a public longing for change, ElBaradei has already formed a 'Coalition for Change,' a group of like-minded opposition leaders aimed at reforming Egypt's constitution. Claiming that 99 percent of Egyptians want their country to head in a new direction, ElBaradei has also begun rallying "the poor and the rich, the young and the old…women wearing the niqab, the hijab, or not veiled at all; intellectuals; peasants; people of all ages and classes."

But much like US President Barack Obama, ElBaradei has made it clear that he does not want to be seen as a saviour. However, just as huge expectations pushed Obama to the White House, it may already be too late. "ElBaradei has become the symbol of the hope for change for millions of Egyptians," novelist Alaa al-Aswani told reporters on Tuesday.

Government restrictions make candidacy near impossible

Despite the growing movement behind ElBaradei, analysts say election rules make it almost impossible for any candidate to stage a realistic challenge against the one nominated by Mubarak's ruling National Democratic Party (NDP).

Mubarak's party holds the power over independents

"The chances of ElBaradei running are very slim," Dr. Amr Hamzawy, research director at the Carnegie Middle East Centre in Beirut, told Deutsche Welle. "The constitutional restrictions introduced in the amendments of 2005 and 2007 say that independent candidates must have 250 signatures from parliamentary and local council members."

"The problem is that the ruling National Democratic Party holds 95 percent of the parliament and around 90 percent of council seats. This means no independent candidate will get enough signatures. The official, legal parties - even if they only have one seat - can field a candidate but ElBaradei has said that he will not be joining a party."

ElBaradei's refusal to join a party has been part of his stance to emphasize the restrictive nature of political process and to call for the reform of the Egyptian constitution to allow more competition and representation, something the ruling government has rejected.

"ElBaradei is understandably reluctant to run as the candidate of any of the existing opposition parties, which are all weak and many of them have been co-opted by the government and discredited with the public," Georgetown University Professor Michelle Dunne, an expert on Arab politics, told Deutsche Welle.

"He has formed a 'front' with other opposition figures to call for constitutional and legal changes to liberalize rules to run for the presidency. He would need to gather a lot of popular support in Egypt and international support in order to press Mubarak to allow such changes."

Read more about the chances for change in Egypt